MODEL VERDICT
NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $25.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.43 | -86.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $83.88 | +232.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $61.18 | +142.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.45 | -38.8% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.09 | 25.82 | 18.37 | 66.36 | 22.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.46 | 12.35 | 10.05 | 23.98 | 7.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.62 | 11.83 | 8.32 | 30.51 | 10.19 |
| P/FCF | 6.99 | 7.29 | 5.31 | 8.38 | 1.56 |
| P/FFO | 22.90 | 16.73 | 14.31 | 43.82 | 14.01 |
| P/TBV | 1.45 | 1.51 | 0.86 | 2.06 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 36.14 | 21.95 | 16.95 | 83.71 | 31.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.30 | 0.80 | 1.81 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 1.23 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTGR's fair value at $15.45 vs the current price of $25.25, implying -38.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.15 (P10) to $28.92 (P90), with a median of $19.89.
NTGR's current P/E of -22.1x compares to the industry median of 49.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -144.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover NTGR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +42.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NTGR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.