MODEL VERDICT
EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $26.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $21.37 | Below threshold | +17.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $15.88 | -40.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $18.73 | -29.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $10.32 | -61.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $16.61 | -37.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $14.99 | -43.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.21 | -12.5% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $27 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.98 | 15.08 | 11.11 | 215.82 | 81.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.45 | 12.80 | 11.06 | 16.64 | 2.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.32 | 9.45 | 5.77 | 14.75 | 3.01 |
| P/FCF | 13.67 | 13.26 | 5.90 | 19.39 | 4.45 |
| P/FFO | 12.63 | 10.01 | 4.70 | 33.06 | 9.34 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.83 | 0.80 | 2.52 | 0.66 |
| P/AFFO | 14.33 | 13.32 | 6.43 | 23.44 | 6.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.41 | 1.58 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.32 | 1.27 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates EZPW's fair value at $23.21 vs the current price of $26.53, implying -12.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.84 (P10) to $46.26 (P90), with a median of $24.26.
EZPW's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +67.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover EZPW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.25 (range: $23.00 — $34.00), implying +2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EZPW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 150.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.