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Fastenal Company (FAST)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$43.53
→
Intrinsic$15.85
-64%
$10.77$15.85$25.49
Current price reflects execution expectations above 10% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $11 → Bull $25. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $25).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
| 10% | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| 12% | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| 14% | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($25) with 12% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($11) implies 75% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 64% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($25) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.04B
Year 2$1.14B
Year 3$1.25B
Year 4$1.37B
Year 5$1.50B
Terminal$22.12B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate9.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$946.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.