Upside case
Bull case
$74+62.3%
FAST would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 31 covering FAST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$46
+0.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $74
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
36.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.7B
FAST price targets
Three scenarios for where FAST stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$36
Base
$57
Bull
$74
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$57+23.2%
At 45x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-22.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push FAST down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fastenal Company
FAST · NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionDecember year-end
Fastenal is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies — primarily fasteners like bolts, nuts, and screws — to manufacturing, maintenance, and construction customers. It makes money through product sales across its extensive network of local branches and on-site vending machines at customer facilities, with fastener products representing roughly 35-40% of revenue and other industrial supplies making up the balance. The company's key advantage is its dense distribution network — over 3,300 branches across North America — which provides local inventory availability and rapid delivery to industrial customers.
Market Cap
$52.7B
Revenue TTM
$8.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
15.3%
FAST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-16.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.28
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.30
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.26
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.30
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.28 | +2.7% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.30 | -2.4% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26/$0.26 | +0.3% | $2.0B/$2.0B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.30/$0.30 | +0.4% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$9.7B
+8.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.21
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$1.32
+9.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 12.8%
Next Earnings
July 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.32
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
FAST beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FAST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
83.2%
+8.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 83.2%, up 8.7% YoY.
FAST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $33 — implies -28.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
28.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FAST
42.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+72% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FAST
42.1x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+65% premium
vs FAST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.1x
vs
5Y Average
34.0x
+24% premium
Forward PE
36.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+96%
Industrials
21.2x
+74%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+72%
Industrials
25.6x
+65%
5Y Avg
34.0x
+24%
PEG Ratio
5.42x
S&P 500
1.66x
+227%
Industrials
1.65x
+229%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+110%
Industrials
13.9x
+130%
5Y Avg
23.7x
+35%
Price/FCF
50.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+142%
Industrials
20.0x
+150%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+18%
Price/Sales
6.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+108%
Industrials
1.6x
+311%
5Y Avg
5.2x
+23%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
-1%
Industrials
1.21%
+57%
5Y Avg
2.29%
-17%
| Metric | FAST | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 36.9x | 18.8x+96% | 21.2x+74% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.1x | 24.4x+72% | 25.6x+65% | 34.0x+24% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.42x | 1.66x+227% | 1.65x+229% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.9x | 15.2x+110% | 13.9x+130% | 23.7x+35% |
| Price/FCF | 50.1x | 20.7x+142% | 20.0x+150% | 42.6x+18% |
| Price/Sales | 6.4x | 3.1x+108% | 1.6x+311% | 5.2x+23% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.90% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.29% |
FAST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFAST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FAST generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 12.8% margin — 31.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
31.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
24.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$277M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$165M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
79.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFAST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
Stock forecasts show limited upside with a $47 consensus target and only +4.2% implied upside.
High Risk
Economic cyclicality
Fastenal's reliance on industrial and construction sectors makes it vulnerable to economic downturns.
Medium
Competitive pressures
As the largest fastener distributor, Fastenal faces intense competition in the industrial supply market.
Lower
Regulatory risks
Operating in multiple regions exposes Fastenal to varying regulatory environments and compliance costs.
High Risk
Supply chain disruptions
Fastenal's broad product offering and reliance on global suppliers make it susceptible to supply chain issues.
Medium
Revenue concentration
Heavy dependence on manufacturing and construction sectors could lead to revenue volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FAST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Market leadership in fasteners
Fastenal is the largest fastener distributor in North America, providing a wide range of industrial and construction supplies.
Revenue growth alignment
Fastenal's Q1 2026 results showed 12.4% year-on-year revenue growth, aligning with analyst expectations despite softer profitability.
Tech-enabled business shift
The company's evolution beyond a cyclical distributor is supported by embedded FMI technology and on-site services, enhancing value.
Broad industrial supply offering
Fastenal provides a diverse range of industrial supplies, including safety and metal cutting products, catering to manufacturing and construction sectors.
Investment in growth models
Continuing investments in FMI and on-site models highlight Fastenal's focus on sustaining operating margins and long-term growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FAST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.89
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.97
+17.8% from the low
52-Week High
$50.63
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
+4.30%
3 Month
+1.80%
YTD
+13.5%
1 Year
+10.6%
3Y CAGR
+17.4%
5Y CAGR
+12.6%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FAST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
36.9x
vs 25.4x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
vs +4.2% median
+117% above peer median
Net Margin
15.3%
vs 8.4% median
+82% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $52.7B | 36.9x | +9.1% | 15.3% | Hold | +0.5% |
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $64.5B | 29.9x | +6.0% | 9.7% | Hold | -6.6% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $6.6B | 27.2x | +3.5% | 5.4% | Hold | -6.3% |
SNA SNA Snap-on Incorporated | $20.2B | 20.3x | +2.4% | 20.0% | Buy | +7.3% |
SIT SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4.9B | 25.4x | +7.4% | 3.2% | Buy | +47.3% |
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $333.0B | 22.4x | +4.2% | 8.4% | Buy | +11.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAST Dividend and Capital Return
FAST returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.90% dividend, raised 27 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
Payout Ratio
79.8%
How FAST Splits Its Return
Div 1.90%
Dividend 1.90%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
27Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.2%
5Y Div CAGR
4.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.88 | +12.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $0.78 | -12.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2023 | $0.89 | +43.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $0.62 | +10.7% | 0.9% | 3.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsFAST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fastenal Company (FAST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fastenal Company (FAST) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $46, implying +0.5% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $74.
02What is the FAST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FAST is $46 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $50 (+9.0% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (-8.5%). The base case model target is $57.
03Is Fastenal Company (FAST) stock overvalued in 2026?
FAST trades at 36.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fastenal Company (FAST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FAST in 2026 are: (1) Economic cyclicality — Fastenal's reliance on industrial and construction sectors makes it vulnerable to economic downturns. (2) Supply chain disruptions — Fastenal's broad product offering and reliance on global suppliers make it susceptible to supply chain issues. (3) Valuation de-rating — Stock forecasts show limited upside with a $47 consensus target and only +4. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fastenal Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FAST will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.21 (+10.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.7B in revenue.
06When does Fastenal Company (FAST) report its next earnings?
Fastenal Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-13. Consensus expects EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, FAST has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Fastenal Company generate?
Fastenal Company (FAST) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.8%. FAST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).