Upside case
Bull case
$61+38.4%
FAST would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 36x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 31 covering FAST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
+5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $61
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $50.9B
FAST price targets
Three scenarios for where FAST stock could go
Current
~$44
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $44
Bear
$41
Base
$53
Bull
$61
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$53+18.8%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41-6.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push FAST down roughly 7% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fastenal Company
FAST · NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionDecember year-end
Fastenal is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies — primarily fasteners like bolts, nuts, and screws — to manufacturing, maintenance, and construction customers. It makes money through product sales across its extensive network of local branches and on-site vending machines at customer facilities, with fastener products representing roughly 35-40% of revenue and other industrial supplies making up the balance. The company's key advantage is its dense distribution network — over 3,300 branches across North America — which provides local inventory availability and rapid delivery to industrial customers.
Market Cap
$50.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
15.3%
FAST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-16.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.28
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.30
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.26
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.30
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.28 | +2.7% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.30 | -2.4% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26/$0.26 | +0.3% | $2.0B/$2.0B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.30/$0.30 | +0.4% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.9B
+8.9% YoY
FY2
$9.6B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.20
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$1.30
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 12.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FAST beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
FAST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
83.2%
+8.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 83.2%, up 8.7% YoY.
FAST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $28 — implies -37.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FAST
40.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+62% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FAST
40.7x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+59% premium
vs FAST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.7x
vs
5Y Average
34.0x
+20% premium
Forward PE
35.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+88%
Industrials
20.7x
+73%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+62%
Industrials
25.7x
+59%
5Y Avg
34.0x
+20%
PEG Ratio
5.24x
S&P 500
1.72x
+205%
Industrials
1.64x
+219%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
30.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+103%
Industrials
13.7x
+126%
5Y Avg
23.7x
+30%
Price/FCF
48.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+130%
Industrials
21.2x
+129%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+14%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+99%
Industrials
1.6x
+292%
5Y Avg
5.2x
+18%
Dividend Yield
1.97%
S&P 500
1.87%
+5%
Industrials
1.27%
+55%
5Y Avg
2.29%
-14%
| Metric | FAST | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.8x | 19.1x+88% | 20.7x+73% | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.7x | 25.1x+62% | 25.7x+59% | 34.0x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.24x | 1.72x+205% | 1.64x+219% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.8x | 15.2x+103% | 13.7x+126% | 23.7x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 48.4x | 21.1x+130% | 21.2x+129% | 42.6x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+99% | 1.6x+292% | 5.2x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.97% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 2.29% |
FAST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFAST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FAST generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 12.8% margin — 31.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
31.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
24.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$277M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$165M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
79.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFAST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Slowdown & Recession
A softening industrial economy or a potential recession could reduce demand for Fastenal’s products, compressing sales and profitability. Even a mild recession may erode the company’s stability premium in the market.
High Risk
Market Cyclicality
Fastenal’s industrial and construction supply business is inherently cyclical; downturns in national or local economies can sharply cut sales and margins. Historical downturns have led to significant revenue declines.
Medium
Inflation & Cost Pressures
Rising energy, raw material, transportation, and labor costs can erode gross profit margins and increase operating expenses. These cost pressures may not be fully passed to customers.
Medium
Trade Policy & Tariffs
Changes in trade policies or new tariffs can raise import costs for Fastenal’s products. If the company cannot pass these costs to customers, gross margins could be squeezed.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Global sourcing exposes Fastenal to supply disruptions from geopolitical events or extreme weather, potentially leading to inventory shortages and lost sales.
Medium
Product Concentration
Fasteners account for 30‑35% of Fastenal’s sales; fluctuations in demand for this single category can disproportionately affect overall revenue and earnings.
Medium
Intense Competition
Fastenal competes with traditional retailers, online platforms, and specialist distributors. Competitors with greater resources could erode market share and pressure profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FAST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Generation
Fastenal maintains a robust balance sheet with minimal debt and high liquidity, reflected in strong ROE and a favorable ROIC-to-WACC ratio. Its operating cash flow comfortably covers capital expenditures, dividends, and debt reduction, leaving ample funds for growth initiatives.
Premium Pricing from Specialized Fasteners
By focusing on highly specific fasteners, Fastenal secures premium pricing and maintains strong margins, reinforcing its profitability and resilience in cyclical markets.
Onsite Program Driving Revenue & Retention
The Onsite program, which places vending machines and inventory management at customer facilities, accounts for a substantial portion of revenue and creates sticky customer relationships with high switching costs.
Technology-Enabled Inventory Solutions (FMI)
Fastenal’s FMI offerings—FASTStock, FASTBin, and FASTVend—enhance sales through efficient, technology-driven stocking and fulfillment, expanding its digital footprint and customer reach.
Digital Sales Growth & Margin Improvement
Digital sales are a growing contributor, with an increasing percentage of total revenue coming from online channels, and the expansion of onsite and digital footprints is expected to improve margins and offset rising costs.
Projected Revenue Growth & Market Leadership
Analysts project an 8.6% annual revenue increase through 2027, supported by Fastenal’s position as North America’s largest fastener distributor and its ability to gain market share amid an industrial recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FAST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.33
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.97
+13.8% from the low
52-Week High
$50.63
-12.4% from the high
1 Month
-3.36%
3 Month
-6.34%
YTD
+9.6%
1 Year
+7.6%
3Y CAGR
+17.5%
5Y CAGR
+10.4%
10Y CAGR
+14.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FAST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.8x
vs 23.7x median
+51% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
vs +3.6% median
+144% above peer median
Net Margin
15.3%
vs 8.6% median
+79% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $50.9B | 35.8x | +8.9% | 15.3% | Hold | +5.1% |
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $54.0B | 26.0x | +5.7% | 9.5% | Hold | +2.0% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $5.7B | 23.7x | +1.2% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.1% |
SNA SNA Snap-on Incorporated | $19.7B | 19.8x | +0.6% | 20.0% | Buy | +9.0% |
SIT SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $5.4B | 27.8x | +5.7% | 3.2% | Buy | +34.1% |
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $313.3B | 21.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +29.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAST Dividend and Capital Return
FAST returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.97% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.97%
Payout Ratio
79.8%
How FAST Splits Its Return
Div 1.97%
Dividend 1.97%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.2%
5Y Div CAGR
4.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.88 | +12.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $0.78 | -12.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2023 | $0.89 | +43.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $0.62 | +10.7% | 0.9% | 3.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsFAST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fastenal Company (FAST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fastenal Company (FAST) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying +5.1% from the current price of $44. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $61.
02What is the FAST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FAST is $47 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $52 (+17.3% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $53.
03Is Fastenal Company (FAST) stock overvalued in 2026?
FAST trades at 35.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fastenal Company (FAST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FAST in 2026 are: (1) Economic Slowdown & Recession — A softening industrial economy or a potential recession could reduce demand for Fastenal’s products, compressing sales and profitability. (2) Market Cyclicality — Fastenal’s industrial and construction supply business is inherently cyclical; downturns in national or local economies can sharply cut sales and margins. (3) Inflation & Cost Pressures — Rising energy, raw material, transportation, and labor costs can erode gross profit margins and increase operating expenses. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fastenal Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FAST will report consensus revenue of $8.9B (+8.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.20 (+9.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.6B in revenue.
06When does Fastenal Company (FAST) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FAST is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Fastenal Company generate?
Fastenal Company (FAST) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.8%. FAST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).