MODEL VERDICT
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $18.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $18.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $18.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $18.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $18.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $17.20 | -6.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $17.41 | -5.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $17.43 | -5.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $16.47 | -10.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $17.19 | -6.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $18.12 | -1.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.59 | -4.7% | 100% | 100 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 |
| Conservative (9%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (14.4%) | $15 | $18 | $22 | $25 | $29 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.88 | 11.47 | 10.03 | 14.59 | 1.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.99 | 10.88 | 8.49 | 13.33 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.36 | 10.44 | 7.96 | 12.35 | 1.31 |
| P/FCF | 11.96 | 10.90 | 9.35 | 15.85 | 2.60 |
| P/FFO | 11.02 | 11.02 | 9.45 | 12.57 | 1.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 1.94 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 12.33 | 12.26 | 10.29 | 14.55 | 1.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.00 | 1.39 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 2.70 | 2.40 | 3.85 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCF's fair value at $17.59 vs the current price of $18.46, implying -4.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.77 (P10) to $18.46 (P90), with a median of $17.60.
FCF's current P/E of 12.6x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +7.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover FCF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.50 (range: $20.00 — $21.00), implying +11.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FCF trades at the 4580th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1320.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.