MODEL VERDICT
Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $21.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $21.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $21.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $21.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $21.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $27.98 | +29.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 14 industry peers | $22.82 | +5.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 14 bank peers | $24.33 | +12.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 14 industry peers | $25.81 | +19.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $27.98 | +29.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $20.66 | -4.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.69 | +14.2% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $13 | $18 | $22 | $26 | $31 |
| Conservative (9%) | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 | $32 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $14 | $19 | $24 | $28 | $33 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.93 | 10.49 | 9.29 | 12.54 | 1.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.96 | 12.01 | 7.76 | 16.02 | 2.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.75 | 10.31 | 7.13 | 14.40 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 12.81 | 9.13 | 4.86 | 31.11 | 8.71 |
| P/FFO | 9.42 | 9.11 | 8.14 | 11.43 | 1.11 |
| P/TBV | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.00 | 1.65 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 10.39 | 9.67 | 8.53 | 13.16 | 1.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 1.02 | 0.79 | 1.25 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.27 | 2.13 | 1.83 | 2.81 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FULT's fair value at $24.69 vs the current price of $21.62, implying +14.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.50 (P10) to $24.69 (P90), with a median of $23.58.
FULT's current P/E of 10.4x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
20 analysts cover FULT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FULT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 610.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.