MODEL VERDICT
FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $192.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $183.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $181.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $181.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $164.91 | Below threshold | +11.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $82.97 | -57.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $77.88 | -59.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $0.72 | -99.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $86.78 | -55.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $86.45 | -55.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.36 | -55.7% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $179 | $195 | $211 | $227 | $244 |
| Conservative (15%) | $188 | $206 | $223 | $240 | $257 |
| Base Case (23.7%) | $202 | $220 | $239 | $257 | $275 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $215 | $235 | $255 | $274 | $294 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.64 | 21.48 | 16.21 | 27.36 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.20 | 16.81 | 12.69 | 22.80 | 3.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.98 | 7.65 | 6.61 | 17.73 | 4.78 |
| P/FCF | 14.10 | 14.84 | 9.48 | 18.60 | 3.75 |
| P/FFO | 11.55 | 9.32 | 5.79 | 19.60 | 5.97 |
| P/TBV | 116.50 | 67.63 | 11.04 | 319.72 | 145.09 |
| P/AFFO | 14.86 | 14.38 | 6.09 | 26.22 | 9.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.37 | 2.27 | 1.70 | 3.12 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.37 | 1.94 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCFS's fair value at $85.36 vs the current price of $192.79, implying -55.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.22 (P10) to $121.98 (P90), with a median of $104.94.
FCFS's current P/E of 26.0x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +132.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $217.00 (range: $217.00 — $217.00), implying +12.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FCFS trades at the 8290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2670.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.