MODEL VERDICT
FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $219.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $219.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $206.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $202.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $201.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $91.88 | -58.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $101.45 | -53.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 4 bank peers | $1.31 | -99.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $51.02 | -76.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $88.44 | -59.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $153.22 | -30.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.81 | -55.5% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $211 | $227 | $244 | $260 | $276 |
| Conservative (15%) | $223 | $240 | $257 | $274 | $291 |
| Base Case (23.7%) | $239 | $257 | $275 | $294 | $312 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $255 | $274 | $294 | $313 | $333 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.64 | 21.48 | 16.21 | 27.36 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.85 | 17.21 | 14.37 | 22.80 | 3.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.35 | 9.86 | 6.61 | 17.73 | 4.54 |
| P/FCF | 14.24 | 15.13 | 9.48 | 18.60 | 3.44 |
| P/FFO | 11.55 | 9.32 | 5.79 | 19.60 | 5.97 |
| P/TBV | 116.50 | 67.63 | 11.04 | 319.72 | 145.09 |
| P/AFFO | 14.31 | 11.01 | 6.09 | 26.22 | 8.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.37 | 2.27 | 1.70 | 3.12 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.79 | 1.37 | 1.94 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCFS's fair value at $97.81 vs the current price of $219.93, implying -55.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.49 (P10) to $125.67 (P90), with a median of $113.50.
FCFS's current P/E of 29.6x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +139.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $252.00 (range: $252.00 — $252.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FCFS trades at the 7950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3580.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.