MODEL VERDICT
Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. (FCPT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $25.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $25.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $24.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $25.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $23.96 | Below threshold | +5.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $20.66 | -19.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $27.57 | +8.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $26.40 | +3.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $39.28 | +53.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $18.44 | -27.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $21.89 | -14.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.02 | +5.9% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
| Base Case (0.2%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (0%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.63 | 25.36 | 21.16 | 27.56 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.69 | 24.59 | 21.66 | 26.93 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.99 | 18.50 | 15.90 | 21.15 | 1.94 |
| P/FCF | 16.98 | 17.72 | 12.35 | 23.31 | 3.70 |
| P/FFO | 17.02 | 16.47 | 13.74 | 19.97 | 2.42 |
| P/TBV | 2.27 | 2.06 | 1.58 | 2.89 | 0.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 1.86 | 1.45 | 2.66 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.28 | 9.52 | 8.07 | 12.47 | 1.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCPT's fair value at $27.02 vs the current price of $25.52, implying +5.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.82 (P10) to $31.15 (P90), with a median of $27.91.
FCPT's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -3.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
14 analysts cover FCPT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $25.00 — $29.00), implying +5.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FCPT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (41.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1450.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.