MODEL VERDICT
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $12.01 | +30.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $26.14 | +183.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $29.05 | +214.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $16.84 | +82.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $12.01 | +30.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $4.12 | -55.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.86 | +82.6% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $7 | $9 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| Base Case (-9.6%) | $5 | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.50 | 14.02 | 8.42 | 17.94 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.72 | 9.54 | 0.18 | 12.92 | 4.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.47 | 7.12 | 0.16 | 11.04 | 4.10 |
| P/FCF | 10.06 | 8.98 | 4.63 | 18.37 | 4.35 |
| P/FFO | 9.04 | 8.41 | 6.81 | 12.20 | 2.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 1.09 | 0.53 | 1.46 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 14.97 | 10.00 | 7.31 | 39.34 | 12.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.50 | 1.39 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | 1.72 | 0.58 | 2.48 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FGBI's fair value at $16.86 vs the current price of $9.23, implying +82.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.11 (P10) to $18.91 (P90), with a median of $17.00.
FGBI's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -23.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover FGBI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $9.50 — $9.50), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FGBI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.