First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)
Valuation Overview•Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 31/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
FGBI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($660M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-27.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $52.3M | -19.9% | — | — | +11.8% | |
| EBITDA | $2.4M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $2.7M | -550.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.14 | -614.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $50.4M | -132.5% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 10.8% | 26.0% | 46.1% | 58.9% |
| Operating Margin | -27.4% | -7.4% | 6.2% | 14.9% |
| Net Margin | -21.8% | -6.2% | 4.7% | 10.9% |
| FCF Margin | 16.2% | 3.7% | 10.9% | 14.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.07 | $0.14 | +100.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.29 | $0.13 | +144.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.29 | $0.16 | +155.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.29 | $0.16 | +155.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.29 | $0.13 | +144.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.32 | $-2.16 | -575.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.20 | $-0.61 | -205.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.17 | $-0.54 | -417.6% |
Total return is +28.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +6.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +94.8% | +87.4% | — |
| 1Y | +28.5% | +6.3% | +0.5% |
| 3YCAGR | -3.2% | -24.3% | +6.3% |
| 5YCAGR | -5.6% | -17.1% | +12.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.1% | -10.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.03 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $9.50 (implying -9.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 31/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -11.8%.
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. pays a 0.4% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -19.9% 1Y revenue growth and -614.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -9.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. include: -52.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.86x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.