Upside case
Bull case
$2746+150.5%
FICO would need investors to value it at roughly 64x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering FICO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1605
+46.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$1313 – $2746
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.4B
FICO price targets
Three scenarios for where FICO stock could go
Current
~$1096
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1096
Bear
$1313
Base
$2084
Bull
$2746
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2084+90.1%
At 48x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1313+19.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push FICO down roughly 20% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fair Isaac Corporation
FICO · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationSeptember year-end
Fair Isaac Corporation is a data analytics and decision management software company that helps businesses make better credit, fraud, and risk decisions. It generates revenue primarily through its FICO Scores business—which provides credit scoring data and analytics—and its Software segment that sells decision management platforms and professional services. The company's main competitive advantage is its FICO credit scoring system, which has become the industry standard used by over 90% of top U.S. lenders.
Market Cap
$25.4B
Revenue TTM
$2.3B
Net Income TTM
$760M
Net Margin
33.7%
FICO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$8.57/$7.71
Revenue
$536M/$515M
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.74/$7.32
Revenue
$516M/$513M
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.33/$7.08
Revenue
$512M/$501M
Q2 2026
EPS
$12.50/$10.89
Revenue
$692M/$630M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $8.57/$7.71 | +11.2% | $536M/$515M | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.74/$7.32 | +5.7% | $516M/$513M | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.33/$7.08 | +3.5% | $512M/$501M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.50/$10.89 | +14.8% | $692M/$630M | +9.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.6B
+13.3% YoY
FY2
$2.9B
+13.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$39.40
+23.2% YoY
FY2
$46.91
+19.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$893M
FCF Margin: 39.6%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$11.67
Expected Revenue
$676M
FICO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FICO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Scores
58.7%
+27.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
87.0%
+19.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Scores is the largest disclosed segment at 58.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 27.1% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 87.0%, up 19.5% YoY.
FICO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $891 — implies -18.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FICO
41.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+69% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
FICO
41.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+42% premium
vs FICO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.3x
vs
5Y Average
52.3x
21% discount
Forward PE
25.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+36%
Technology
22.3x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+69%
Technology
29.0x
+42%
5Y Avg
52.3x
-21%
PEG Ratio
1.51x
S&P 500
1.66x
-9%
Technology
1.51x
0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+98%
Technology
16.6x
+82%
5Y Avg
38.6x
-22%
Price/FCF
33.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+60%
Technology
19.2x
+72%
5Y Avg
45.0x
-27%
Price/Sales
12.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+313%
Technology
2.4x
+424%
5Y Avg
15.6x
-18%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FICO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg FICO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.5x | 18.8x+36% | 22.3x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.3x | 24.4x+69% | 29.0x+42% | 52.3x-21% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.51x | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.2x | 15.2x+98% | 16.6x+82% | 38.6x-22% |
| Price/FCF | 33.0x | 20.7x+60% | 19.2x+72% | 45.0x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 12.8x | 3.1x+313% | 2.4x+424% | 15.6x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
FICO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFICO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FICO generates $893M in free cash flow at a 39.6% margin — 59.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
84.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
50.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
33.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$31.99
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$893M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
39.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
59.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
39.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$134M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
5.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
23M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFICO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory risk
FICO's near-monopoly in credit scoring exposes it to heightened regulatory scrutiny and potential intervention.
High Risk
Economic downturn impact
A prolonged economic downturn could reduce demand for credit scoring services and pressure FICO's revenue.
Medium
Competition from VantageScore
Increased competition from VantageScore threatens FICO's market dominance and pricing power.
Medium
Software scaling challenges
Difficulty in scaling its software business may hinder FICO's ability to meet future revenue and margin expectations.
Lower
Valuation de-rating
Despite record earnings, FICO's shares have declined, reflecting potential overvaluation concerns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FICO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Dominant credit scoring moat
Fair Isaac Corporation has a strong competitive advantage in credit scoring, which is reinforced by regulatory entrenchment and high barriers to entry.
Strong pricing power
The company's ability to maintain and increase prices without losing customers highlights its strong market position and value proposition.
Asset-light business model
FICO's asset-light model allows for high scalability and profitability with minimal capital expenditures.
Valuation pressures creating opportunity
The stock's depreciation presents a potential buying opportunity as the underlying business fundamentals remain strong.
Regulatory entrenchment
FICO's entrenched position in regulated industries provides stability and reduces competitive threats.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FICO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1096.48
52W Range Position
20%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$870.01
+26.0% from the low
52-Week High
$1998.01
-45.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.22%
3 Month
-8.91%
YTD
-33.3%
1 Year
-37.8%
3Y CAGR
+11.3%
5Y CAGR
+16.9%
10Y CAGR
+25.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FICO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.5x
vs 22.7x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.3%
vs +6.3% median
+112% above peer median
Net Margin
33.7%
vs 30.4% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FIC FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $25.4B | 25.5x | +13.3% | 33.7% | Buy | +46.3% |
VRS VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | $22.8B | 22.7x | +5.8% | 29.3% | Hold | +30.1% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.3B | 29.6x | +9.8% | 40.7% | Buy | +18.4% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.9B | 27.0x | +6.3% | 31.7% | Buy | +20.1% |
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $121.6B | 20.9x | +6.2% | 30.4% | Buy | +33.4% |
EFX EFX Equifax Inc. | $18.6B | 17.9x | +7.0% | 11.1% | Buy | +47.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FICO Dividend and Capital Return
FICO returns 5.6% annually — null% through dividends and 5.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
23M
At 5.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.02 | -75.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 2016 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 2015 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| 2014 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% |
| 2013 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFICO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1605, implying +46.3% from the current price of $1096. The bear case scenario is $1313 and the bull case is $2746.
02What is the FICO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FICO is $1605 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1950 (+77.8% from today), and the low-end target is $1250 (+14.0%). The base case model target is $2084.
03Is Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock overvalued in 2026?
FICO trades at 25.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FICO in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory risk — FICO's near-monopoly in credit scoring exposes it to heightened regulatory scrutiny and potential intervention. (2) Economic downturn impact — A prolonged economic downturn could reduce demand for credit scoring services and pressure FICO's revenue. (3) Competition from VantageScore — Increased competition from VantageScore threatens FICO's market dominance and pricing power. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Fair Isaac Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FICO will report consensus revenue of $2.6B (+13.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $39.40 (+23.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.9B in revenue.
06When does Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) report its next earnings?
Fair Isaac Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $11.67 and revenue of $676M. Over recent quarters, FICO has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Fair Isaac Corporation generate?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) generated $893M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 39.6%. FICO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).