MODEL VERDICT
FinVolution Group (FINV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $5.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $5.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $132.00 | +2524.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $106.95 | +2026.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $108.66 | +2060.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $14.35 | +185.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $131.87 | +2521.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $77.46 | +1440.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.57 | +1342.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $37 | $37 | $55 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $38 | $38 | $57 | $76 |
| Base Case (3.4%) | $37 | $37 | $37 | $56 | $75 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $38 | $38 | $38 | $57 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.35 | 0.75 | 0.14 |
| P/FCF | 2.07 | 1.11 | 0.37 | 6.68 | 2.40 |
| P/FFO | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.14 |
| P/TBV | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| P/AFFO | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.73 | 0.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FINV's fair value at $72.57 vs the current price of $5.03, implying +1342.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.17 (P10) to $137.58 (P90), with a median of $77.44.
FINV's current P/E of 3.8x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -74.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover FINV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.94 (range: $5.68 — $6.20), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FINV trades at the 1030th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FINV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5450.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.