MODEL VERDICT
Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $34.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $33.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $35.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $34.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $51.16 | +48.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $39.66 | +15.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $41.45 | +20.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $55.13 | +59.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $51.16 | +48.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $45.89 | +33.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.48 | +23.2% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $30 | $37 | $45 | $52 |
| Conservative (6%) | $23 | $31 | $38 | $46 | $54 |
| Base Case (9.4%) | $24 | $32 | $39 | $47 | $55 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $24 | $33 | $41 | $49 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.25 | 7.74 | 6.65 | 10.84 | 1.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.51 | 8.29 | 5.47 | 12.06 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.71 | 7.39 | 5.05 | 10.59 | 2.01 |
| P/FCF | 17.70 | 9.22 | 3.01 | 46.56 | 18.25 |
| P/FFO | 6.84 | 5.91 | 5.65 | 9.02 | 1.50 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 1.41 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 7.51 | 6.69 | 5.95 | 9.63 | 1.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.78 | 1.68 | 0.99 | 2.46 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FISI's fair value at $42.48 vs the current price of $34.49, implying +23.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.00 (P10) to $43.43 (P90), with a median of $40.15.
FISI's current P/E of 9.6x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -32.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover FISI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +4.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FISI trades at the 1300th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FISI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2690.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.