Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLD)
Valuation Overview•Is Fold Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 25/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
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Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
FLD struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-101.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2M | +6097.8% | -3.3% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$7.6M | — | -38.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$9.7M | -3623.4% | -79.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | -1275.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$9.7M | -369.5% | -106.9% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 101.3% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Operating Margin | -101.5% | 182.6% | 128.0% | 128.0% |
| Net Margin | -269.2% | 61.2% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| FCF Margin | -90.3% | 234.7% | 174.4% | 174.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $-0.15 | $-0.19 | -26.7% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-0.16 | $-0.59 | -268.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.14 | $-0.86 | -514.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.12 | $-0.15 | -25.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.10 | $-0.18 | -80.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.10 | $-0.42 | -320.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $1.65 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $-8.81 | — |
Total return is -85.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -95.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -83.3% | -90.9% | — |
| 1Y | -85.5% | -95.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -65.2% | -83.7% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -46.9% | -55.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -27.2% | -40.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 29.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLD) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Fold Holdings, Inc. appears Limited: Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Fold Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $2.94. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Fold Holdings, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 25/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -29.9%.
Fold Holdings, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Fold Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +6097.8% 1Y revenue growth and -1275.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 0% of recent quarters with a -6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Fold Holdings, Inc. include: -88.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.80x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.80x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.