MODEL VERDICT
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 61 industry peers | $23.53 | +478.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 61 industry peers | $23.77 | +484.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.84 | +534.9% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.87 | 24.56 | 13.13 | 29.21 | 7.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.75 | 20.54 | 10.66 | 143.55 | 56.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.70 | 12.47 | 8.62 | 48.23 | 15.11 |
| P/FCF | 14.01 | 13.17 | 9.36 | 21.16 | 4.92 |
| P/FFO | 23.36 | 12.98 | 7.97 | 77.73 | 26.92 |
| P/TBV | 4.75 | 4.17 | 1.77 | 9.61 | 2.63 |
| P/AFFO | 36.93 | 30.39 | 14.68 | 58.53 | 17.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.48 | 0.93 | 4.32 | 1.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 1.16 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLWS's fair value at $25.84 vs the current price of $4.07, implying +534.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.90 (P10) to $36.20 (P90), with a median of $21.71.
FLWS's current P/E of -1.3x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -105.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover FLWS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $7.00 — $12.00), implying +133.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FLWS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.