MODEL VERDICT
Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $33.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $32.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $36.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $35.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $35.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $47.65 | +41.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $61.26 | +82.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $51.21 | +52.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $59.56 | +77.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $68.19 | +102.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $75.21 | +123.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $38.40 | +14.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $35.05 | +4.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.81 | -32.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $51.29 | +52.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $59.62 | +77.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.73 | +50.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $25 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
| Base Case (6.8%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $26 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.87 | 10.00 | 7.26 | 18.96 | 4.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.43 | 6.17 | 3.72 | 13.87 | 3.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.08 | 5.92 | 3.37 | 13.52 | 3.40 |
| P/FCF | 9.72 | 8.96 | 4.61 | 19.52 | 5.07 |
| P/FFO | 9.42 | 8.30 | 6.47 | 16.75 | 3.63 |
| P/TBV | 2.61 | 2.24 | 1.83 | 3.94 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 10.04 | 9.32 | 6.96 | 17.93 | 3.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.79 | 1.62 | 1.28 | 3.07 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.20 | 2.61 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRDO's fair value at $50.73 vs the current price of $33.64, implying +50.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.49 (P10) to $53.84 (P90), with a median of $48.08.
PRDO's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -34.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover PRDO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $30.00 — $30.00), implying -10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PRDO trades at the 2000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRDO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3020.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.