MODEL VERDICT
H.B. Fuller Company (FUL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $59.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $62.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $64.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $61.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $63.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $76.30 | +27.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $84.31 | +40.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $53.44 | -10.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $51.84 | -13.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $111.04 | +85.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $30.38 | -49.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $17.20 | -71.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $87.66 | +46.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $103.12 | +72.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $53.27 | -11.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $51.63 | -13.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.70 | -20.4% | 100% | 82 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50 | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $58 | $64 | $69 | $75 |
| Base Case (3.1%) | $51 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $74 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $52 | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.87 | 21.98 | 20.46 | 31.43 | 4.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.35 | 17.03 | 14.91 | 20.30 | 1.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.78 | 11.91 | 9.01 | 15.01 | 1.83 |
| P/FCF | 23.01 | 23.42 | 11.15 | 37.53 | 9.73 |
| P/FFO | 12.03 | 12.09 | 9.85 | 14.95 | 2.09 |
| P/AFFO | 19.23 | 20.06 | 12.76 | 24.54 | 4.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.24 | 2.19 | 1.64 | 2.75 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.09 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 1.34 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FUL's fair value at $47.70 vs the current price of $59.95, implying -20.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.61 (P10) to $75.68 (P90), with a median of $68.58.
FUL's current P/E of 21.8x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +12.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
15 analysts cover FUL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.33 (range: $63.00 — $84.00), implying +22.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.4% is 1.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.4%), with a Z-score of +2.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$147. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FUL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.3σ, meaning margins are 2.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14540.0% to approximately $147. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.