MODEL VERDICT
Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $11.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.14 | Pending | -14.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $24.49 | +126.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $7.52 | -30.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $8.75 | -19.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $38.15 | +252.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $40.20 | +271.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $35.18 | +224.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $34.68 | +220.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $14.25 | +31.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $36.90 | +240.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.59 | +376.4% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 130.32 | 66.10 | 35.29 | 289.57 | 138.78 |
| P/FCF | 111.69 | 26.70 | 7.07 | 481.40 | 185.54 |
| P/FFO | 57.54 | 41.80 | 20.59 | 110.23 | 46.85 |
| P/TBV | 8.61 | 5.70 | 2.95 | 19.21 | 7.11 |
| P/AFFO | 63.63 | 45.81 | 21.37 | 123.70 | 53.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.49 | 3.31 | 1.78 | 18.26 | 6.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.92 | 3.18 | 1.70 | 33.28 | 11.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates FVRR's fair value at $51.59 vs the current price of $10.83, implying +376.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.95 (P10) to $104.25 (P90), with a median of $50.81.
FVRR's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +23.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 130.3x over 3 years. Signal: Premium.
17 analysts cover FVRR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.71 (range: $13.00 — $30.00), implying +72.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FVRR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.