MODEL VERDICT
Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $12.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $37.83 | +211.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $14.13 | +16.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $12.00 | -1.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $38.11 | +213.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $43.76 | +260.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $14.39 | +18.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $9.66 | -20.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $12.01 | -1.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $38.17 | +214.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.15 | +362.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 130.32 | 66.10 | 35.29 | 289.57 | 138.78 |
| P/FCF | 111.69 | 26.70 | 7.07 | 481.40 | 185.54 |
| P/FFO | 57.54 | 41.80 | 20.59 | 110.23 | 46.85 |
| P/TBV | 8.61 | 5.70 | 2.95 | 19.21 | 7.11 |
| P/AFFO | 63.63 | 45.81 | 21.37 | 123.70 | 53.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.49 | 3.31 | 1.78 | 18.26 | 6.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.92 | 3.18 | 1.70 | 33.28 | 11.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates FVRR's fair value at $56.15 vs the current price of $12.15, implying +362.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.80 (P10) to $107.82 (P90), with a median of $54.23.
FVRR's current P/E of 21.7x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +1.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 130.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
17 analysts cover FVRR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.83 (range: $13.00 — $24.00), implying +38.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FVRR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.