MODEL VERDICT
Upwork Inc. (UPWK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $49.70 | +373.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $24.91 | +137.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $30.49 | +190.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $26.64 | +154.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $38.94 | +271.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $26.15 | +149.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $9.73 | -7.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $11.12 | +6.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $25.74 | +145.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $25.83 | +146.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $108.86 | +937.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.03 | 23.60 | 10.76 | 43.74 | 16.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 548.34 | 29.01 | 18.38 | 1597.62 | 908.72 |
| P/FCF | 335.68 | 274.56 | 11.50 | 924.43 | 370.79 |
| P/FFO | 21.31 | 19.65 | 10.04 | 34.24 | 12.19 |
| P/TBV | 13.12 | 8.50 | 5.30 | 30.74 | 9.72 |
| P/AFFO | 21.77 | 20.49 | 10.19 | 34.65 | 12.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.75 | 5.36 | 4.07 | 16.74 | 5.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.04 | 3.54 | 2.20 | 10.97 | 3.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates UPWK's fair value at $108.86 vs the current price of $10.49, implying +937.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $108.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.61 (P10) to $259.43 (P90), with a median of $132.04.
UPWK's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 36.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -65.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover UPWK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.14 (range: $17.00 — $27.00), implying +120.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UPWK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.