MODEL VERDICT
Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $22.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $21.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $20.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $16.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $9.21 | -59.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $5.96 | -73.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $7.40 | -67.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $28.96 | +27.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $7.96 | -65.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $29.16 | +28.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $16.39 | -28.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $16.08 | -29.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $6.55 | -71.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $28.05 | +23.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.08 | -38.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 62× | 68× | 74× (Current) | 80× | 86× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.06 | 4.00 | 2.61 | 7.67 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.66 | 4.00 | 2.61 | 6.63 | 1.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.94 | 2.94 | 1.84 | 3.72 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates RELY's fair value at $14.08 vs the current price of $22.79, implying -38.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.10 (P10) to $16.66 (P90), with a median of $13.81.
RELY's current P/E of 73.5x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +207.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover RELY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $17.00 — $24.00), implying -7.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RELY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.