MODEL VERDICT
GDEV Inc. (GDEV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $103.81 | +524.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $106.09 | +537.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $58.98 | +254.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $29.53 | +77.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $75.55 | +354.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $35.20 | +111.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $113.19 | +580.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $110.31 | +563.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $58.21 | +250.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $29.68 | +78.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $437.75 | +2532.3% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.35 | 14.01 | 9.61 | 172.43 | 92.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 3857.01 | 52.16 | 7.44 | 15316.26 | 7639.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.79 | 8.36 | 5.29 | 45.73 | 22.51 |
| P/FCF | 15.69 | 14.21 | 10.98 | 25.74 | 5.81 |
| P/FFO | 36.21 | 11.24 | 8.45 | 88.92 | 45.68 |
| P/AFFO | 38.67 | 11.37 | 8.57 | 96.08 | 49.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.94 | 2.63 | 0.85 | 6.84 | 2.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GDEV's fair value at $437.75 vs the current price of $16.63, implying +2532.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $437.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.28 (P10) to $1212.50 (P90), with a median of $400.82.
GDEV's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -71.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 65.4x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover GDEV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GDEV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.