MODEL VERDICT
Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $31.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $31.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $33.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $33.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $30.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $29.90 | -5.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $22.68 | -27.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $12.47 | -60.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $30.82 | -2.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $15.33 | -51.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $33.26 | +5.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $209.39 | +565.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.81 | -49.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.49 | -50.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $12.08 | -61.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $30.53 | -3.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.53 | +70.2% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 69× | 75× | 81× (Current) | 87× | 93× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (53%) | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 | $55 |
| Conservative (85%) | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 | $67 |
| Base Case (131.2%) | $62 | $68 | $73 | $78 | $84 |
| Bull Case (177%) | $75 | $81 | $88 | $94 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 112.64 | 87.54 | 72.47 | 177.92 | 57.04 |
| P/FCF | 137.25 | 54.62 | 24.65 | 501.29 | 203.98 |
| P/FFO | 114.05 | 97.08 | 77.51 | 167.58 | 47.37 |
| P/TBV | 12.24 | 12.92 | 7.04 | 19.55 | 5.20 |
| P/AFFO | 118.43 | 99.55 | 80.30 | 175.43 | 50.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.53 | 7.42 | 3.51 | 10.21 | 2.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.00 | 11.43 | 7.19 | 26.29 | 7.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GLBE's fair value at $53.53 vs the current price of $31.46, implying +70.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.86 (P10) to $73.98 (P90), with a median of $43.28.
GLBE's current P/E of 80.7x compares to the industry median of 32.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +152.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover GLBE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.40 (range: $37.00 — $48.00), implying +38.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GLBE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.