MODEL VERDICT
Playtika Holding Corp. (PLTK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $20.76 | +458.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $27.38 | +636.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $22.23 | +497.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $33.83 | +809.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $38.80 | +943.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $27.64 | +643.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.22 | +443.4% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.20 | 14.70 | 12.33 | 23.05 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.31 | 10.60 | 8.59 | 15.47 | 2.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.89 | 8.14 | 7.11 | 12.19 | 2.25 |
| P/FCF | 7.96 | 6.62 | 2.80 | 15.72 | 4.86 |
| P/FFO | 9.87 | 8.01 | 7.82 | 15.65 | 3.86 |
| P/AFFO | 12.09 | 9.72 | 8.87 | 20.05 | 5.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.25 | 0.54 | 2.75 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLTK's fair value at $20.22 vs the current price of $3.72, implying +443.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.90 (P10) to $26.75 (P90), with a median of $22.29.
PLTK's current P/E of -6.9x compares to the industry median of 43.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -116.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover PLTK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.75 (range: $3.75 — $3.75), implying +0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PLTK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.