Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)
Valuation Overview•Is Genesis Energy, L.P. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 35/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
GEL struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-16.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 18.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $446.6M | -45.0% | -16.4% | -2.2% | -3.2% | |
| EBITDA | $140.9M | — | -7.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $6.8M | +87.2% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.06 | +41.1% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $61.3M | +145.2% | — | -10.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 22.4% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| Operating Margin | 18.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% |
| Net Margin | 2.1% | 0.3% | -0.8% | -1.3% |
| FCF Margin | 11.3% | -1.4% | -1.2% | 1.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.16 | $-0.06 | -137.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.28 | $0.04 | -85.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.13 | $-0.05 | -138.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.04 | $-0.12 | -200.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.23 | $-0.60 | -160.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.05 | $-0.58 | -1060.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.10 | $-0.32 | -220.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.03 | $-0.25 | -733.3% |
Total return is -9.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -34.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -6.6% | -15.9% | — |
| 1Y | -9.3% | -34.3% | +4.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +19.4% | -0.9% | +20.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +10.3% | -3.3% | +29.1% |
| 10YCAGR | -3.0% | -16.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) valuation, health, and returns.
Genesis Energy, L.P. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -78.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $3.19)
Genesis Energy, L.P. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $3.19 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $6.33 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $16.50 (implying +14.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Genesis Energy, L.P. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 35/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.0%.
Genesis Energy, L.P. pays a 4.6% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 14.8% buyback yield.
Genesis Energy, L.P.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -45.0% 1Y revenue growth and +41.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -16.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +14.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Genesis Energy, L.P. include: -23.3% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.16x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.