MODEL VERDICT
Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $17.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $16.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $16.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $17.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $17.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $11.54 | -32.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $12.50 | -26.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $10.16 | -40.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $9.67 | -43.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $8.77 | -48.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $28.63 | +67.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $10.20 | -40.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.69 | -2.3% | 100% | 64 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.71 | 52.64 | 9.72 | 113.78 | 52.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.53 | 19.18 | 14.13 | 75.81 | 22.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.84 | 10.22 | 7.89 | 86.76 | 29.09 |
| P/FCF | 18.50 | 16.54 | 4.99 | 35.91 | 13.48 |
| P/FFO | 5.92 | 5.50 | 3.37 | 9.07 | 2.44 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.11 | 0.58 | 5.78 | 1.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.82 | 0.43 | 2.70 | 0.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 1.17 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEL's fair value at $16.69 vs the current price of $17.07, implying -2.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.39 (P10) to $35.33 (P90), with a median of $17.66.
GEL's current P/E of -23.4x compares to the industry median of 18.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -229.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover GEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GEL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.