MODEL VERDICT
Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEPC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $42.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $42.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $43.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $42.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $38.01 | Pending | +12.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $69.14 | +61.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $105.11 | +146.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $124.64 | +191.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $46.60 | +9.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $66.44 | +55.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $62.24 | +45.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.95 | +21.6% | 100% | 69 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (16%) | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Base Case (24.7%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $48 | $52 | $57 | $61 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.94 | 6.71 | 3.15 | 16.97 | 7.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.59 | 13.00 | 6.13 | 25.21 | 8.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.59 | 7.55 | 6.23 | 8.83 | 0.93 |
| P/FCF | 11.18 | 9.00 | 8.34 | 16.21 | 4.37 |
| P/FFO | 2.98 | 2.88 | 1.76 | 4.41 | 1.10 |
| P/TBV | 0.48 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.95 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 15.96 | 8.97 | 2.98 | 35.92 | 17.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.86 | 0.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.71 | 1.30 | 0.97 | 3.15 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates BEPC's fair value at $51.95 vs the current price of $42.73, implying +21.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.52 (P10) to $84.29 (P90), with a median of $59.37.
BEPC's current P/E of 26.2x compares to the industry median of 42.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -38.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover BEPC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying -15.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BEPC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BEPC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.