MODEL VERDICT
Gold Fields Limited (GFI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $42.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $45.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $49.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $47.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $49.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $41.08 | -2.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $52.24 | +24.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $21.46 | -49.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $12.50 | -70.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $21.93 | -47.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $9.72 | -76.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $55.61 | +32.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $54.81 | +30.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $57.74 | +37.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $21.46 | -49.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $12.48 | -70.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.50 | -25.1% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $43 | $46 | $49 | $53 | $56 |
| Conservative (32%) | $47 | $51 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| Base Case (48.7%) | $53 | $57 | $62 | $66 | $70 |
| Bull Case (66%) | $59 | $64 | $69 | $73 | $78 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.67 | 12.76 | 9.57 | 34.74 | 9.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.47 | 7.96 | 6.86 | 15.92 | 3.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.03 | 4.73 | 4.34 | 6.30 | 0.67 |
| P/FCF | 19.13 | 18.30 | 12.40 | 29.58 | 6.03 |
| P/FFO | 6.93 | 6.40 | 5.85 | 8.64 | 1.06 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 2.20 | 1.04 | 2.80 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 21.69 | 22.22 | 9.97 | 29.29 | 7.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.05 | 2.15 | 1.04 | 2.80 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.11 | 2.16 | 1.14 | 2.88 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GFI's fair value at $31.50 vs the current price of $42.08, implying -25.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.44 (P10) to $32.72 (P90), with a median of $30.10.
GFI's current P/E of 30.5x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +96.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover GFI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $54.42 (range: $45.00 — $61.00), implying +29.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 23.2% is 19.6 percentage points above the 6-year average (23.6%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$23. (2) Multiple compression: GFI trades at the 5930th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GFI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (23.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4450.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.