MODEL VERDICT
Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $24.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $23.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $24.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $24.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $23.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $10.89 | -55.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $858.66 | +3400.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $2.39 | -90.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $20.14 | -17.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $16.59 | -32.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $328.75 | +1240.2% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.29 | 4.15 | 3.75 | 7.97 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.33 | 4.58 | 4.12 | 7.28 | 1.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 | 6.56 | 3.14 | 17.12 | 5.94 |
| P/FCF | 17.33 | 8.67 | 4.95 | 48.73 | 18.33 |
| P/FFO | 9.48 | 4.15 | 2.84 | 24.52 | 9.39 |
| P/TBV | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.89 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 5.46 | 5.58 | 4.02 | 6.77 | 1.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.89 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates GNK's fair value at $328.75 vs the current price of $24.53, implying +1240.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $328.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $207.27 (P10) to $639.64 (P90), with a median of $416.13.
GNK's current P/E of -245.3x compares to the industry median of 5.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -4223.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover GNK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.50 (range: $17.00 — $23.00), implying -16.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GNK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.