Upside case
Bull case
$691+88.0%
GOOG would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
79
analysts
69 bullish · 1 bearish · 79 covering GOOG
Strong Buy
3
Buy
66
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$401
+9.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$330 – $691
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
79
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $4.45T
GOOG price targets
Three scenarios for where GOOG stock could go
Current
~$367
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $367
Bear
$330
Base
$524
Bull
$691
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$524+42.7%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$330-10.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push GOOG down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alphabet Inc.
GOOG · NASDAQTechnologyInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Alphabet is a technology conglomerate best known for its Google search engine and digital ecosystem. It generates over 80% of its revenue from digital advertising—primarily through Google Search, YouTube, and its ad network—with the remainder coming from Google Cloud services and other ventures. Its dominant competitive advantage lies in its massive user data network, which creates powerful network effects and makes its advertising targeting capabilities nearly impossible for competitors to replicate at scale.
Market Cap
$4.45T
Revenue TTM
$422.6B
Net Income TTM
$160.2B
Net Margin
37.9%
GOOG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.31/$2.18
Revenue
$96.4B/$94.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.87/$2.30
Revenue
$102.3B/$99.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.82/$2.63
Revenue
$113.8B/$111.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.11/$2.68
Revenue
$109.9B/$107.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.31/$2.18 | +6.0% | $96.4B/$94.0B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.87/$2.30 | +24.8% | $102.3B/$99.9B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.82/$2.63 | +7.2% | $113.8B/$111.3B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.11/$2.68 | +90.7% | $109.9B/$107.0B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$484.1B
+14.6% YoY
FY2
$554.3B
+14.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.29
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$15.42
+7.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$73.3B
FCF Margin: 17.3%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.85
Expected Revenue
$116.7B
GOOG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GOOG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $402.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Google Search & Other
55.7%
+13.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.2%
+14.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Google Search & Other is the largest disclosed segment at 55.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.2%, up 14.0% YoY.
GOOG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $326 — implies -11.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GOOG
34.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+39% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GOOG
34.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+17% premium
vs GOOG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.0x
vs
5Y Average
24.5x
+39% premium
Forward PE
25.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+38%
Technology
22.3x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+39%
Technology
29.0x
+17%
5Y Avg
24.5x
+39%
PEG Ratio
1.14x
S&P 500
1.66x
-31%
Technology
1.51x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+96%
Technology
16.6x
+79%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+52%
Price/FCF
60.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+193%
Technology
19.2x
+216%
5Y Avg
31.9x
+90%
Price/Sales
11.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+257%
Technology
2.4x
+352%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+63%
Dividend Yield
0.22%
S&P 500
1.91%
-88%
Technology
1.11%
-80%
5Y Avg
0.29%
-22%
| Metric | GOOG | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GOOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.9x | 18.8x+38% | 22.3x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.0x | 24.4x+39% | 29.0x+17% | 24.5x+39% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.14x | 1.66x-31% | 1.51x-24% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.8x | 15.2x+96% | 16.6x+79% | 19.6x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 60.7x | 20.7x+193% | 19.2x+216% | 31.9x+90% |
| Price/Sales | 11.0x | 3.1x+257% | 2.4x+352% | 6.8x+63% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.22% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.29% |
GOOG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGOOG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GOOG generates $73.3B in free cash flow at a 17.3% margin — 25.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$422.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$73.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$30.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$28.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$45.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
12.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGOOG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Antitrust risk
Alphabet faces dual antitrust battles which could impact its business operations and profitability.
High Risk
Capex surge
Alphabet's 2026 capex guidance of $175 to $185 billion, more than doubling prior levels, raises concerns over profitability and cash flow.
Medium
Revenue softening
Potential softening in Google Search and Cloud revenue could negatively impact Alphabet's near-term growth.
Medium
Valuation compression
Higher interest rates and weaker equity markets may compress valuation multiples, limiting stock upside despite revenue growth.
Lower
Market volatility
GOOG stock exhibits dynamic price patterns with potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GOOG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Google Cloud rerating
The bull case highlights the potential for Google Cloud to exceed growth estimates and improve margins, driving a stock re-rating.
AI monetization potential
Continued AI integration and monetization across Alphabet's platforms are key drivers for future growth.
Strong earnings execution
The latest earnings release provided strong evidence of Alphabet's ability to execute, supporting the bull case.
Fair valuation
Despite trading at a higher multiple, Alphabet's valuation remains fair, with sentiment improving.
Digital distribution control
Alphabet's dominance in digital distribution through platforms like Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud underpins the bullish thesis.
Cash-generative platforms
The company's cash-generative platforms, including Search and YouTube, provide a solid foundation for growth.
Antitrust risk mitigation
The bull case assumes effective management or mitigation of antitrust risks, supporting continued growth.
Stock re-rating potential
Analysts project a stock re-rating to 30x P/E if Cloud growth and margin improvements exceed expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GOOG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$367.46
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$163.33
+125.0% from the low
52-Week High
$404.44
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
-6.52%
3 Month
+19.97%
YTD
+16.5%
1 Year
+111.2%
3Y CAGR
+43.7%
5Y CAGR
+24.0%
10Y CAGR
+26.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GOOG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.9x
vs 22.6x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.6%
vs +10.9% median
+33% above peer median
Net Margin
37.9%
vs 27.2% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GOO GOOG Alphabet Inc. | $4.45T | 25.9x | +14.6% | 37.9% | Buy | +9.1% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.46T | 17.5x | +16.0% | 32.8% | Buy | +43.1% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $2.82T | 22.6x | +8.8% | 39.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
BID BIDU Baidu, Inc. | $38.0B | 2.1x | +10.9% | 3.5% | Buy | +43.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GOOG Dividend and Capital Return
GOOG returns capital mainly through $45.7B/year in buybacks (1.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.22% dividend — combining for 1.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.22%
Payout Ratio
7.6%
How GOOG Splits Its Return
Div 0.22%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.22%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$45.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
124M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
12.1B
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.83 | +38.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | — | 2.6% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsGOOG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 79 analysts covering the stock, 69 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $401, implying +9.1% from the current price of $367. The bear case scenario is $330 and the bull case is $691.
02What is the GOOG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GOOG is $401 based on 79 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $450 (+22.5% from today), and the low-end target is $345 (-6.1%). The base case model target is $524.
03Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock overvalued in 2026?
GOOG trades at 25.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GOOG in 2026 are: (1) Antitrust risk — Alphabet faces dual antitrust battles which could impact its business operations and profitability. (2) Capex surge — Alphabet's 2026 capex guidance of $175 to $185 billion, more than doubling prior levels, raises concerns over profitability and cash flow. (3) Revenue softening — Potential softening in Google Search and Cloud revenue could negatively impact Alphabet's near-term growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alphabet Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GOOG will report consensus revenue of $484.1B (+14.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.29 (+9.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $554.3B in revenue.
06When does Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) report its next earnings?
Alphabet Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $2.85 and revenue of $116.7B. Over recent quarters, GOOG has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Alphabet Inc. generate?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) generated $73.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.3%. GOOG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($45.7B TTM).