Upside case
Bull case
$626+62.8%
GOOG would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
79
analysts
69 bullish · 1 bearish · 79 covering GOOG
Strong Buy
3
Buy
66
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$383
-0.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$271 – $626
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
79
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $4.65T
GOOG price targets
Three scenarios for where GOOG stock could go
Current
~$384
Confidence
84 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $384
Bear
$271
Base
$557
Bull
$626
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$557+45.0%
At 46x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$271-29.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push GOOG down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alphabet Inc.
GOOG · NASDAQTechnologyInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Alphabet is a technology conglomerate best known for its Google search engine and digital ecosystem. It generates over 80% of its revenue from digital advertising—primarily through Google Search, YouTube, and its ad network—with the remainder coming from Google Cloud services and other ventures. Its dominant competitive advantage lies in its massive user data network, which creates powerful network effects and makes its advertising targeting capabilities nearly impossible for competitors to replicate at scale.
Market Cap
$4.65T
Revenue TTM
$422.6B
Net Income TTM
$160.2B
Net Margin
37.9%
GOOG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.31/$2.18
Revenue
$96.4B/$94.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.87/$2.30
Revenue
$102.3B/$99.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.82/$2.63
Revenue
$113.8B/$111.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.11/$2.68
Revenue
$109.9B/$107.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.31/$2.18 | +6.0% | $96.4B/$94.0B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.87/$2.30 | +24.8% | $102.3B/$99.9B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.82/$2.63 | +7.2% | $113.8B/$111.3B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.11/$2.68 | +90.7% | $109.9B/$107.0B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$478.3B
+13.2% YoY
FY2
$552.9B
+15.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.26
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$15.67
+18.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$73.3B
FCF Margin: 17.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GOOG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GOOG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $402.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Google Search & Other
55.7%
+13.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
48.2%
+14.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Google Search & Other is the largest disclosed segment at 55.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 48.2%, up 14.0% YoY.
GOOG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $246 — implies -35.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
35.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GOOG
35.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+42% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
GOOG
35.6x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+33% premium
vs GOOG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.6x
vs
5Y Average
24.5x
+45% premium
Forward PE
31.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+65%
Technology
22.1x
+43%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+42%
Technology
26.7x
+33%
5Y Avg
24.5x
+45%
PEG Ratio
1.19x
S&P 500
1.72x
-31%
Technology
1.52x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
31.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+104%
Technology
17.5x
+78%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+59%
Price/FCF
63.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+201%
Technology
19.5x
+225%
5Y Avg
31.9x
+99%
Price/Sales
11.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+269%
Technology
2.4x
+372%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+70%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
S&P 500
1.87%
-89%
Technology
1.16%
-82%
5Y Avg
0.29%
-25%
| Metric | GOOG | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg GOOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.5x | 19.1x+65% | 22.1x+43% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.6x | 25.1x+42% | 26.7x+33% | 24.5x+45% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.19x | 1.72x-31% | 1.52x-22% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.1x | 15.2x+104% | 17.5x+78% | 19.6x+59% |
| Price/FCF | 63.5x | 21.1x+201% | 19.5x+225% | 31.9x+99% |
| Price/Sales | 11.5x | 3.1x+269% | 2.4x+372% | 6.8x+70% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.21% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.29% |
GOOG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGOOG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GOOG generates $73.3B in free cash flow at a 17.3% margin — 25.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$422.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
37.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$73.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
27.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$30.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$28.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$45.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
12.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGOOG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Pressure
Alphabet faces escalating antitrust scrutiny, including a DOJ lawsuit alleging monopoly power in search and a recent jury verdict holding Google liable for social media addiction. These actions could trigger costly settlements, operational restrictions, and reputational damage, potentially eroding its core advertising revenue.
High Risk
Tech & Innovation Disruption
The rise of generative AI and intelligent agents threatens to shift how users search, potentially reducing traditional search query volume and ad clicks that drive Alphabet's core monetization. A compromise of trade secrets could further erode competitive advantage, forcing higher investment in security and innovation.
High Risk
Finance & Corporate Risk
Finance & Corporate risks account for 32% of total concerns, including concentrated stock ownership limiting shareholder influence, large capital expenditures for AI and cloud, and compression of free cash flow despite earnings growth. These factors could strain liquidity and pressure profit margins, impacting shareholder returns.
Medium
Market Volatility Sensitivity
Alphabet's stock often underperforms the S&P 500 during market sell-offs, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic downturns. High capex in AI and cloud may not yield expected returns, further pressuring margins and share price.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Competition intensifies from AI-native firms like OpenAI and Perplexity, as well as giants such as Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon's growing advertising presence. These rivals could erode Alphabet's market share and pressure advertising revenue growth.
Medium
Operational & Governance Risks
Alphabet faces operational risks such as the potential genericization of the 'Google' trademark and a dual-class share structure that concentrates voting power with insiders, limiting public shareholder influence. These issues could affect brand value and corporate governance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GOOG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI Leadership & Integration
Alphabet heavily invests in AI infrastructure, deploying its own TPUs and securing long‑term AI infrastructure agreements with Broadcom. Expanded cloud compute access for Anthropic further deepens Alphabet’s control over AI hardware and cloud stack. Gemini’s rapid adoption—millions of paid seats and hundreds of millions of monthly active users—signals a high‑gear AI stack that could lift future earnings.
Google Cloud Growth
Google Cloud is delivering robust year‑over‑year revenue growth, driven by enterprise AI infrastructure and platform services. The segment is positioned as a key growth engine, with infrastructure and platform services expected to contribute significantly to overall revenue.
Search & YouTube Resilience
Despite AI concerns, search usage remains high with longer, more commercial queries featuring AI Overviews. YouTube continues to generate strong revenue, projected to exceed $60 billion in 2025, reinforcing its role as a major monetization driver.
Diversified Revenue Ecosystem
Alphabet’s interconnected ecosystem—Search, Ads, YouTube, Android, Chrome, Maps—creates a self‑reinforcing loop of data and monetization. New revenue streams such as subscriptions and “Other Bets” like Waymo are being explored, adding diversification.
Financial Strength & Efficiency
Alphabet reported revenues surpassing $400 billion in 2025, while maintaining strong earnings growth. Although capital expenditures are high due to AI infrastructure, the company is pursuing efficiency initiatives and cost discipline to preserve margins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GOOG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$384.31
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$149.49
+157.1% from the low
52-Week High
$388.96
-1.2% from the high
1 Month
+29.11%
3 Month
+15.99%
YTD
+21.9%
1 Year
+131.4%
3Y CAGR
+53.5%
5Y CAGR
+26.7%
10Y CAGR
+27.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GOOG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.5x
vs 24.8x median
+27% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.2%
vs +7.0% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
37.9%
vs 27.2% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GOO GOOG Alphabet Inc. | $4.65T | 31.5x | +13.2% | 37.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
MET META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.53T | 20.0x | +16.1% | 32.8% | Buy | +35.8% |
MSF MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.06T | 24.8x | +7.0% | 39.3% | Buy | +34.1% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.17T | 33.4x | +4.0% | 27.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
BID BIDU Baidu, Inc. | $44.2B | 2.3x | +1.5% | 6.9% | Buy | +22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GOOG Dividend and Capital Return
GOOG returns capital mainly through $45.7B/year in buybacks (1.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.21% dividend — combining for 1.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
Payout Ratio
7.6%
How GOOG Splits Its Return
Div 0.21%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.21%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$45.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
119M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
12.1B
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.83 | +38.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | — | 2.6% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsGOOG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 79 analysts covering the stock, 69 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $383, implying -0.2% from the current price of $384. The bear case scenario is $271 and the bull case is $626.
02What is the GOOG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GOOG is $383 based on 79 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $450 (+17.1% from today), and the low-end target is $300 (-21.9%). The base case model target is $557.
03Is Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock overvalued in 2026?
GOOG trades at 31.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GOOG in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Pressure — Alphabet faces escalating antitrust scrutiny, including a DOJ lawsuit alleging monopoly power in search and a recent jury verdict holding Google liable for social media addiction. (2) Tech & Innovation Disruption — The rise of generative AI and intelligent agents threatens to shift how users search, potentially reducing traditional search query volume and ad clicks that drive Alphabet's core monetization. (3) Finance & Corporate Risk — Finance & Corporate risks account for 32% of total concerns, including concentrated stock ownership limiting shareholder influence, large capital expenditures for AI and cloud, and compression of free cash flow despite earnings growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alphabet Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GOOG will report consensus revenue of $478.3B (+13.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.26 (+1.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $552.9B in revenue.
06When does Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GOOG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Alphabet Inc. generate?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) generated $73.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.3%. GOOG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($45.7B TTM).