MODEL VERDICT
GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $1.02 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $7.12 | +598.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $6.85 | +571.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.12 | +107.5% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 1477.81 | 20.84 | 13.87 | 4398.72 | 2529.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.14 | 15.99 | 12.21 | 29.22 | 8.93 |
| P/FCF | 135.81 | 13.88 | 7.52 | 386.01 | 216.71 |
| P/FFO | 26.38 | 20.69 | 4.35 | 54.09 | 25.35 |
| P/TBV | 7.30 | 5.63 | 1.30 | 18.06 | 6.49 |
| P/AFFO | 72.91 | 22.49 | 4.42 | 191.83 | 103.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.49 | 2.69 | 0.96 | 5.71 | 1.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.21 | 1.45 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates GPRO's fair value at $2.12 vs the current price of $1.02, implying +107.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.22 (P10) to $3.82 (P90), with a median of $2.44.
GPRO's current P/E of -0.4x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -101.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover GPRO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying +390.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GPRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.