Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN)
Valuation Overview•Is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 61/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
GRDN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($28M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (16.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (10.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 6.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $336.6M | +17.9% | +16.8% | +14.5% | — | |
| EBITDA | $17.7M | — | +17.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $13.3M | +156.4% | +11.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.21 | +144.1% | +10.4% | +18.8% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0M | +94.1% | +36.5% | +12.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.2% | 19.8% | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| Operating Margin | 6.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| Net Margin | 3.6% | -0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| FCF Margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.24 | $0.29 | +20.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.27 | $0.37 | +37.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +4.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.22 | $0.23 | +4.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.22 | $0.21 | -4.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.21 | $0.24 | +14.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.19 | $-2.00 | -1152.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.17 | — |
Total return is +115.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +90.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +43.6% | +34.3% | — |
| 1Y | +115.5% | +90.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +38.4% | +19.9% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +21.5% | +9.6% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +10.2% | -3.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) valuation, health, and returns.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -46.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $22.64)
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $22.64 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $41.73 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $41.00 (implying -3.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 61/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 12.8 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 35.8%.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +2.1% in the last 12 months.
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +17.9% 1Y revenue growth and +144.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +16.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 71% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -3.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. include: -22.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.79x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.