MODEL VERDICT
Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $81.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $81.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $80.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $80.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $73.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $9.71 | -88.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $4.06 | -95.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $68.30 | -16.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.49 | -94.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.11 | -63.1% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 57.58 | 50.80 | 32.44 | 108.24 | 27.34 |
| P/FCF | 79.19 | 72.11 | 21.88 | 150.65 | 60.99 |
| P/FFO | 65.40 | 49.33 | 11.59 | 151.36 | 66.39 |
| P/TBV | 9.08 | 9.18 | 2.11 | 18.56 | 6.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.62 | 8.40 | 1.97 | 14.09 | 4.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.29 | 15.61 | 6.49 | 24.71 | 7.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSAT's fair value at $30.11 vs the current price of $81.70, implying -63.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.86 (P10) to $35.56 (P90), with a median of $25.64.
GSAT's current P/E of -138.5x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -424.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover GSAT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $66.00 (range: $62.00 — $70.00), implying -19.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GSAT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.