MODEL VERDICT
GSI Technology, Inc. (GSIT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 87 industry peers | $7.10 | +11.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 87 industry peers | $5.75 | -9.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.49 | -13.9% | 100% | 48 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.82 | 2.01 | 0.77 | 8.38 | 2.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.15 | 1.78 | 0.65 | 5.62 | 1.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.68 | 3.50 | 1.26 | 7.73 | 2.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSIT's fair value at $5.49 vs the current price of $6.37, implying -13.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.98 (P10) to $9.30 (P90), with a median of $6.08.
GSIT's current P/E of -15.2x compares to the industry median of 45.7x (46 peers in the group). This represents a -133.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover GSIT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GSIT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.