MODEL VERDICT
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $163.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $167.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $165.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $172.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $181.77 | Below threshold | -4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $153.49 | -6.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $110.21 | -32.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $42.14 | -74.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $153.94 | -6.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $156.72 | -4.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $116.60 | -28.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $141.66 | -13.5% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $148 | $161 | $173 | $186 | $198 |
| Conservative (10%) | $154 | $167 | $180 | $192 | $205 |
| Base Case (15.8%) | $162 | $175 | $189 | $202 | $216 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $169 | $184 | $198 | $212 | $226 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.38 | 24.01 | 13.60 | 42.25 | 9.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.03 | 18.28 | 8.67 | 28.89 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.54 | 17.00 | 8.03 | 29.46 | 6.81 |
| P/FCF | 29.55 | 14.79 | 8.17 | 94.74 | 31.21 |
| P/FFO | 23.69 | 21.97 | 12.23 | 38.33 | 8.12 |
| P/TBV | 26.56 | 25.16 | 13.74 | 47.24 | 11.04 |
| P/AFFO | 26.94 | 24.50 | 12.46 | 48.89 | 11.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.90 | 5.02 | 3.61 | 6.44 | 0.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.25 | 4.48 | 2.62 | 6.18 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLI's fair value at $141.66 vs the current price of $163.77, implying -13.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $141.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.69 (P10) to $169.41 (P90), with a median of $145.07.
HLI's current P/E of 28.1x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +6.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover HLI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $205.67 (range: $196.00 — $211.00), implying +25.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HLI trades at the 5280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 740.0% to approximately $152. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.