MODEL VERDICT
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $73.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $84.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $90.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $87.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $69.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $61.29 | -16.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $37.94 | -48.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $28.34 | -61.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $61.25 | -16.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $28.04 | -61.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.67 | -38.0% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (104%) | $125 | $138 | $150 | $163 | $176 |
| Conservative (169%) | $165 | $182 | $198 | $215 | $231 |
| Base Case (259.8%) | $221 | $243 | $266 | $288 | $310 |
| Bull Case (351%) | $277 | $305 | $333 | $360 | $388 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.28 | 2.14 | 1.05 | 12.09 | 4.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.08 | 2.10 | 1.03 | 11.36 | 4.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.90 | 8.45 | 5.27 | 23.23 | 7.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOOD's fair value at $45.67 vs the current price of $73.66, implying -38.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.46 (P10) to $57.08 (P90), with a median of $47.21.
HOOD's current P/E of 35.9x compares to the industry median of 29.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +20.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Premium.
25 analysts cover HOOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.14 (range: $82.00 — $160.00), implying +59.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HOOD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.