MODEL VERDICT
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $75.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $76.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $75.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $85.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $115.27 | Below threshold | -24.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $41.14 | -45.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $30.61 | -59.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $36.54 | -51.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $42.01 | -44.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $35.45 | -53.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.87 | -58.0% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $67 | $73 | $79 | $86 | $92 |
| Conservative (7%) | $68 | $75 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.32 | 1.95 | 1.05 | 4.35 | 1.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.27 | 1.90 | 1.03 | 4.24 | 1.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.81 | 7.27 | 5.27 | 11.44 | 2.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOOD's fair value at $31.87 vs the current price of $75.85, implying -58.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.45 (P10) to $42.00 (P90), with a median of $34.44.
HOOD's current P/E of 48.6x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +84.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover HOOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.80 (range: $100.00 — $170.00), implying +75.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HOOD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.