MODEL VERDICT
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $91.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $88.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $92.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $100.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $94.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $71.53 | -21.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $66.63 | -27.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $35.69 | -61.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $85.00 | -7.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $71.53 | -21.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $85.38 | -6.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.22 | -24.4% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $82 | $88 | $95 | $101 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $85 | $91 | $97 | $104 | $110 |
| Base Case (2.3%) | $83 | $89 | $95 | $101 | $107 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $83 | $89 | $96 | $102 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.59 | 24.75 | 16.95 | 29.72 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.30 | 15.60 | 7.77 | 22.22 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.42 | 13.56 | 7.28 | 18.37 | 4.12 |
| P/FCF | 53.58 | 12.23 | 4.76 | 145.21 | 62.26 |
| P/FFO | 18.47 | 18.70 | 14.82 | 22.73 | 2.67 |
| P/TBV | 4.79 | 4.57 | 2.23 | 9.94 | 2.62 |
| P/AFFO | 21.27 | 21.14 | 17.43 | 26.14 | 2.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.84 | 1.36 | 4.31 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.05 | 5.33 | 4.94 | 8.40 | 1.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCHW's fair value at $69.22 vs the current price of $91.54, implying -24.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.16 (P10) to $78.92 (P90), with a median of $70.41.
SCHW's current P/E of 30.6x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +28.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
50 analysts cover SCHW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.11 (range: $105.00 — $127.00), implying +30.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (29), Hold (18), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SCHW trades at the 7300th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCHW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1200.0% to approximately $81. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.