MODEL VERDICT
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $95.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $94.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $93.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $99.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $100.17 | Below threshold | +7.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $78.86 | -17.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $92.76 | -2.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $66.77 | -29.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $79.35 | -16.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $80.52 | -15.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $86.81 | -8.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $78.38 | -17.7% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $79 | $88 | $98 | $107 | $116 |
| Conservative (5%) | $82 | $91 | $100 | $110 | $119 |
| Base Case (2.3%) | $80 | $89 | $98 | $107 | $116 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $80 | $89 | $99 | $108 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.59 | 24.75 | 16.95 | 29.72 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.30 | 15.60 | 7.77 | 22.22 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.42 | 13.56 | 7.28 | 18.37 | 4.12 |
| P/FCF | 53.58 | 12.23 | 4.76 | 145.21 | 62.26 |
| P/FFO | 18.47 | 18.70 | 14.82 | 22.73 | 2.67 |
| P/TBV | 4.79 | 4.57 | 2.23 | 9.94 | 2.62 |
| P/AFFO | 21.27 | 21.14 | 17.43 | 26.14 | 2.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.84 | 1.36 | 4.31 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.05 | 5.33 | 4.94 | 8.40 | 1.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCHW's fair value at $78.38 vs the current price of $95.20, implying -17.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $78.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.33 (P10) to $92.81 (P90), with a median of $79.71.
SCHW's current P/E of 31.8x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +20.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
50 analysts cover SCHW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $122.78 (range: $105.00 — $148.00), implying +29.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (29), Hold (18), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SCHW trades at the 6390th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SCHW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1540.0% to approximately $81. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.