MODEL VERDICT
Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $148.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $155.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $146.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $158.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $178.49 | Pending | -12.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $1024.88 | +588.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $695.63 | +367.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $876.67 | +489.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $1046.44 | +603.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $1233.10 | +728.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $697.79 | +368.8% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (37%) | $1387 | $1494 | $1601 | $1708 | $1814 |
| Conservative (61%) | $1623 | $1748 | $1873 | $1998 | $2122 |
| Base Case (93.3%) | $1953 | $2103 | $2253 | $2404 | $2554 |
| Bull Case (126%) | $2283 | $2459 | $2635 | $2810 | $2986 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.32 | 2.21 | 1.79 | 7.17 | 2.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.54 | 4.62 | 0.98 | 14.70 | 6.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.78 | 4.46 | 0.94 | 13.95 | 5.40 |
| P/FCF | 0.83 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 1.73 | 0.60 |
| P/FFO | 2.87 | 2.12 | 1.72 | 5.11 | 1.44 |
| P/TBV | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 3.82 | 2.18 | 1.75 | 10.44 | 3.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.72 | 0.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.04 | 0.88 | 0.76 | 1.81 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FUTU's fair value at $697.79 vs the current price of $148.84, implying +368.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $697.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $510.53 (P10) to $788.63 (P90), with a median of $640.99.
FUTU's current P/E of 30.0x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +13.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.3x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
12 analysts cover FUTU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $224.70 (range: $213.39 — $236.00), implying +51.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FUTU trades at the 5830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FUTU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (33.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2790.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.