Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)
Valuation Overview•Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 86/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Elite compounder with fortress-level fundamentals across every core pillar.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
HMY exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 40.1% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($10.9B) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (20.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 30.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.6B | +20.4% | +20.1% | +20.4% | +16.1% | |
| EBITDA | $22.5B | — | +104.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $9.3B | +67.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $14.73 | +67.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B | +48.8% | +147.7% | +178.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 38.3% | 27.5% | 19.7% | 10.1% |
| Operating Margin | 30.9% | 20.3% | 14.9% | 4.6% |
| Net Margin | 17.5% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 2.6% |
| FCF Margin | 13.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 4.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.95 | $0.87 | -9.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.57 | $0.58 | +2.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.66 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $6.29 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.11 | — | ||
| Q2'24 | — | $2.09 | — | ||
| Q1'24 | — | $0.52 | — | ||
| Q1'24 | — | $4.80 | — |
Total return is +21.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -4.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -11.5% | -20.8% | — |
| 1Y | +21.0% | -4.0% | +2.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +60.7% | +41.5% | +16.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +34.2% | +20.9% | +18.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +17.9% | +4.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) valuation, health, and returns.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +85.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $31.62)
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $31.62 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $813.77. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 86/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 40.1%.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited pays a 1.2% dividend yield, covered by a 14% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +20.4% 1Y revenue growth and +67.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +20.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 10 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 40% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited include: -48.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.06x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.06x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.