MODEL VERDICT
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $38.55 | Pending | -3.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $90.83 | +218.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $98.05 | +243.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $59.09 | +107.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $158.55 | +455.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $100.64 | +252.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $157.13 | +450.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $155.32 | +444.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $151.26 | +430.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $71.94 | +152.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $172.38 | +504.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $108.09 | +278.7% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $25 | $31 | $37 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $26 | $32 | $38 | $43 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $27 | $33 | $39 | $45 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $28 | $34 | $40 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.95 | 15.16 | 13.71 | 73.52 | 26.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.21 | 9.29 | 6.35 | 40.34 | 14.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.13 | 15.78 | 6.28 | 75.55 | 26.35 |
| P/FCF | 14.67 | 9.11 | 6.30 | 25.69 | 9.09 |
| P/FFO | 20.03 | 12.73 | 11.74 | 47.24 | 15.33 |
| P/TBV | 17.11 | 5.91 | 2.81 | 59.28 | 23.98 |
| P/AFFO | 20.11 | 12.75 | 11.82 | 47.51 | 15.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.85 | 6.27 | 2.52 | 21.52 | 7.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.28 | 5.52 | 2.52 | 13.09 | 4.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HRMY's fair value at $108.09 vs the current price of $28.54, implying +278.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $108.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.25 (P10) to $132.58 (P90), with a median of $107.37.
HRMY's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -51.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover HRMY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.17 (range: $31.00 — $62.00), implying +68.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HRMY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7170.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.