MODEL VERDICT
Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $53.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $53.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $53.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $54.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $60.04 | Below threshold | -5.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $58.49 | +9.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $61.31 | +15.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.41 | -9.0% | 100% | 63 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.70 | 18.79 | 6.03 | 39.20 | 14.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.14 | 4.59 | 3.10 | 43.74 | 23.05 |
| P/FFO | 9.24 | 5.46 | 2.02 | 20.22 | 9.67 |
| P/TBV | 2.55 | 1.86 | 0.47 | 7.06 | 2.17 |
| P/AFFO | 11.03 | 9.62 | 2.74 | 20.74 | 9.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.43 | 1.86 | 0.45 | 7.06 | 2.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.95 | 6.92 | 0.87 | 20.58 | 7.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUT's fair value at $48.41 vs the current price of $53.23, implying -9.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.00 (P10) to $69.08 (P90), with a median of $50.40.
HUT's current P/E of -24.9x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -192.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover HUT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.10 (range: $55.00 — $85.00), implying +31.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HUT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.