MODEL VERDICT
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $232.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $231.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $253.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $244.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $230.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $239.44 | +3.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $143.20 | -38.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $271.47 | +16.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $235.01 | +1.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $120.11 | -48.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $176.46 | -24.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $237.91 | +2.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $230.46 | -0.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $296.83 | +27.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $271.47 | +16.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $233.80 | +0.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $215.88 | -7.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $199 | $223 | $246 | $270 | $293 |
| Conservative (8%) | $205 | $229 | $253 | $278 | $302 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $213 | $239 | $264 | $289 | $314 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $222 | $248 | $274 | $300 | $326 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.22 | 21.05 | 12.12 | 78.27 | 22.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.79 | 28.27 | 19.20 | 73.63 | 18.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.11 | 13.90 | 12.75 | 21.80 | 3.28 |
| P/FCF | 14.05 | 12.44 | 7.20 | 24.28 | 5.64 |
| P/FFO | 13.71 | 12.67 | 7.38 | 19.95 | 5.29 |
| P/AFFO | 16.09 | 14.16 | 8.66 | 25.22 | 6.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.52 | 6.37 | 5.20 | 8.58 | 1.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 2.12 | 1.95 | 4.16 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IBM's fair value at $215.88 vs the current price of $232.24, implying -7.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $215.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $184.92 (P10) to $268.39 (P90), with a median of $225.93.
IBM's current P/E of 20.8x compares to the industry median of 24.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -14.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
50 analysts cover IBM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $309.64 (range: $225.00 — $360.00), implying +33.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (24), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.6% is 4.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.9%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$237. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IBM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 190.0% to approximately $237. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.