MODEL VERDICT
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $154.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $158.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $161.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $165.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $160.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $170.47 | +10.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $206.66 | +33.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $169.47 | +9.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $170.47 | +10.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $190.07 | +22.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $174.87 | +13.0% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $137 | $149 | $161 | $173 | $185 |
| Conservative (6%) | $140 | $153 | $165 | $177 | $189 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $145 | $157 | $170 | $182 | $195 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $149 | $162 | $174 | $187 | $200 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.48 | 30.58 | 19.05 | 39.76 | 6.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.36 | 23.29 | 14.84 | 30.58 | 4.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.57 | 18.08 | 15.88 | 21.21 | 1.84 |
| P/FCF | 23.08 | 22.21 | 18.73 | 28.93 | 3.46 |
| P/FFO | 20.06 | 20.15 | 15.25 | 23.23 | 2.60 |
| P/AFFO | 23.13 | 22.83 | 16.74 | 28.85 | 3.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.04 | 3.10 | 2.53 | 3.40 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.44 | 7.33 | 5.97 | 8.43 | 0.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ICE's fair value at $174.87 vs the current price of $154.75, implying +13.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $174.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $162.37 (P10) to $188.07 (P90), with a median of $175.20.
ICE's current P/E of 26.8x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -9.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
36 analysts cover ICE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $195.71 (range: $180.00 — $211.00), implying +26.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (32), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ICE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1260.0% to approximately $174. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.