MODEL VERDICT
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $117.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $120.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $119.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $114.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $90.36 | Below threshold | +26.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $62.36 | -46.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $81.94 | -30.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $139.71 | +19.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $97.77 | -16.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $113.38 | -3.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $111.48 | -5.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $74.69 | -36.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $131.06 | +11.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $93.62 | -20.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $141.96 | +21.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $100.41 | -14.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.41 | -20.4% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $139 | $159 | $179 | $198 | $218 |
| Conservative (16%) | $147 | $168 | $189 | $210 | $231 |
| Base Case (25.0%) | $158 | $180 | $203 | $225 | $248 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $169 | $193 | $217 | $241 | $266 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.67 | 7.86 | 4.29 | 10.28 | 2.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.00 | 6.76 | 3.37 | 10.86 | 2.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.53 | 5.18 | 2.85 | 17.61 | 4.99 |
| P/FCF | 8.32 | 7.60 | 3.48 | 16.90 | 4.57 |
| P/FFO | 5.44 | 5.08 | 3.37 | 9.32 | 1.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 1.19 | 0.66 | 1.49 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 9.07 | 7.38 | 4.04 | 22.09 | 5.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 1.18 | 0.65 | 1.48 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IMO's fair value at $93.41 vs the current price of $117.30, implying -20.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.08 (P10) to $101.95 (P90), with a median of $89.49.
IMO's current P/E of 17.8x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.7x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
20 analysts cover IMO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $44.99 (range: $42.97 — $47.00), implying -61.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (10), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IMO trades at the 7330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IMO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4440.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.