MODEL VERDICT
International Paper Company (IP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $31.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $32.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $37.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $36.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $36.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $23.61 | -25.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $66.90 | +110.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $33.58 | +5.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.50 | -10.3% | 100% | 42 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.22 | 26.11 | 8.45 | 41.55 | 14.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.65 | 21.09 | 9.28 | 41.15 | 11.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 215.45 | 10.90 | 6.36 | 1450.28 | 544.52 |
| P/FCF | 13.60 | 11.34 | 7.45 | 25.18 | 6.88 |
| P/FFO | 8.19 | 7.00 | 5.00 | 13.68 | 3.20 |
| P/TBV | 3.47 | 3.81 | 2.43 | 4.34 | 0.78 |
| P/AFFO | 16.70 | 16.96 | 7.64 | 30.49 | 8.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.91 | 2.03 | 1.40 | 2.37 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.60 | 1.06 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates IP's fair value at $28.50 vs the current price of $31.76, implying -10.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 42/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.52 (P10) to $38.57 (P90), with a median of $31.46.
IP's current P/E of -4.7x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -134.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover IP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.40 (range: $40.00 — $60.00), implying +46.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (10), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 42/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.