MODEL VERDICT
JD.com, Inc. (JD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $26.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.45 | Pending | -4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $446.27 | +1582.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $226.44 | +753.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $787.87 | +2869.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $668.08 | +2418.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $456.53 | +1620.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $719.83 | +2613.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $536.97 | +1924.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $1422.30 | +5261.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $1167.77 | +4301.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $787.86 | +2869.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $694.49 | +2517.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $476.08 | +1694.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $119 | $149 | $208 | $268 | $328 |
| Conservative (17%) | $126 | $158 | $221 | $284 | $347 |
| Base Case (26.8%) | $136 | $171 | $239 | $307 | $375 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $146 | $183 | $256 | $329 | $403 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.80 | 2.77 | 1.29 | 8.74 | 2.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.37 | 1.58 | 0.88 | 4.72 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.29 | 3.33 | 0.75 | 6.96 | 2.08 |
| P/FCF | 2.64 | 2.47 | 1.16 | 4.59 | 1.40 |
| P/FFO | 9.07 | 2.90 | 1.08 | 40.74 | 14.28 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 4.05 | 1.38 |
| P/AFFO | 2.94 | 3.23 | 1.48 | 3.83 | 1.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.82 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 3.62 | 1.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates JD's fair value at $476.08 vs the current price of $26.53, implying +1694.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $476.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $373.59 (P10) to $542.25 (P90), with a median of $456.81.
JD's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -76.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover JD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $32.00 — $41.00), implying +39.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JD trades at the 280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 28180.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.