JD.com, Inc. (JD) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $10.4B | $24.2B | $41.4B | $33.2B | $40.6B | $40.3B | $41.4B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.42 | $15.24 | $26.90 | $22.27 | $28.03 | $28.71 | $30.40 |
| YoY Growth | — | +132.8% | +71.1% | -19.7% | +22.1% | -0.6% | +2.7% |
| Net Margin | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.16T | $1.40T | $1.51T | $1.59T | $1.63T |
| Net Income | $41.4B | $33.2B | $40.6B | $40.3B | $41.4B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $26.90 | $22.27 | $28.03 | $28.71 | $30.40 |
| Free Cash Flow | $44.3B | $10.5B | $11.4B | $12.1B | $12.4B |
Forecast is usable, but expect normal estimate drift around earnings and macro events.
JD.com, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $22.27. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 71/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for JD.com, Inc.: Bear case $-43, Base case $190, and Bull case $399. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
JD.com, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 7.6%, reaching approximately $1403.4B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 71/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
JD.com, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 1.7% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-43) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 5.9% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 53% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.