MODEL VERDICT
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $62.25 | Pending | -3.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $77.85 | +75.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $174.26 | +292.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $169.87 | +282.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $110.97 | +149.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $78.73 | +77.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $63.26 | +42.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.65 | +110.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $35 | $40 | $46 | $52 | $58 |
| Conservative (5%) | $36 | $42 | $48 | $53 | $59 |
| Base Case (-0.3%) | $34 | $40 | $45 | $51 | $56 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $34 | $39 | $45 | $51 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.75 | 10.71 | 6.05 | 36.74 | 11.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.61 | 5.57 | 1.75 | 8.75 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 | 5.00 | 1.74 | 8.82 | 2.51 |
| P/FCF | 14.36 | 6.20 | 3.60 | 41.44 | 18.11 |
| P/FFO | 12.22 | 8.59 | 5.49 | 24.44 | 7.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0.83 | 2.15 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 13.91 | 10.09 | 6.04 | 25.39 | 8.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.66 | 1.71 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 1.67 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JEF's fair value at $93.65 vs the current price of $44.40, implying +110.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.81 (P10) to $113.56 (P90), with a median of $93.03.
JEF's current P/E of 15.7x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -43.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover JEF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $76.00 (range: $55.00 — $97.00), implying +71.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JEF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7240.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.