MODEL VERDICT
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $47.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $46.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $63.06 | +27.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $209.79 | +325.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $211.25 | +328.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $90.80 | +84.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $63.05 | +27.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $58.44 | +18.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.49 | +103.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $38 | $43 | $49 | $55 | $61 |
| Conservative (5%) | $39 | $45 | $51 | $56 | $62 |
| Base Case (1.3%) | $37 | $43 | $49 | $54 | $60 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.75 | 10.71 | 6.05 | 36.74 | 11.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.61 | 5.57 | 1.75 | 8.75 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 | 5.00 | 1.74 | 8.82 | 2.51 |
| P/FCF | 14.36 | 6.20 | 3.60 | 41.44 | 18.11 |
| P/FFO | 12.22 | 8.59 | 5.49 | 24.44 | 7.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.14 | 0.83 | 2.15 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 13.91 | 10.09 | 6.04 | 25.39 | 8.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.66 | 1.71 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 1.67 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JEF's fair value at $100.49 vs the current price of $49.29, implying +103.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.91 (P10) to $109.82 (P90), with a median of $96.20.
JEF's current P/E of 17.4x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -21.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover JEF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.75 (range: $44.00 — $97.00), implying +37.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JEF trades at the 3510th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JEF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5530.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.