Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)
Valuation Overview•Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Fragile underlying quality score of 32/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
JEF struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 6.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | +2.9% | — | — | -0.8% | |
| EBITDA | -$1.7B | — | -32.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $215.0M | -4.4% | -3.3% | — | +9.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.85 | -5.4% | -2.6% | +1.3% | +14.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | -271.2% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | 59.8% | 56.8% | 53.0% |
| Operating Margin | 6.3% | 31.9% | 34.3% | 31.5% |
| Net Margin | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| FCF Margin | -15.8% | -15.4% | -1.6% | 2.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.89 | $0.72 | -19.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.88 | $0.89 | +1.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.80 | $1.05 | +31.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.44 | $0.43 | -2.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.94 | $0.60 | -36.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.85 | $1.05 | +23.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.78 | $0.75 | -3.8% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.63 | $0.64 | +1.6% |
Total return is +19.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -5.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.9% | -10.2% | — |
| 1Y | +19.7% | -5.3% | +3.0% |
| 3YCAGR | +26.2% | +6.5% | +13.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +19.6% | +6.4% | +23.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +16.6% | +2.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) valuation, health, and returns.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -39.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $37.85)
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $37.85 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $102.04 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $62.75 (implying +1.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 32/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.6%.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. pays a 2.7% dividend yield, covered by a 53% payout ratio with 9 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.4% buyback yield.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +2.9% 1Y revenue growth and -5.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +1.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. include: -48.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.79x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.79x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.