MODEL VERDICT
Jiayin Group Inc. (JFIN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $44.48 | +586.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $492.39 | +7498.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $369.39 | +5600.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $176.36 | +2621.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $219.03 | +3280.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $179.63 | +2672.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $281.35 | +4241.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $347.40 | +5261.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $368.21 | +5582.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $506.03 | +7709.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $170.57 | +2532.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.69 | +3460.0% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $84 | $84 | $84 | $84 | $126 |
| Conservative (10%) | $87 | $87 | $87 | $87 | $131 |
| Base Case (14.6%) | $91 | $91 | $91 | $91 | $137 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $143 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| P/FCF | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.77 | 0.27 |
| P/FFO | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.60 | 0.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.24 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 4.62 | 2.25 |
| P/AFFO | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 1.01 | 0.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 4.62 | 2.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.89 | 0.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates JFIN's fair value at $230.69 vs the current price of $6.48, implying +3460.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.39 (P10) to $381.59 (P90), with a median of $235.29.
JFIN's current P/E of 2.2x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -88.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover JFIN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JFIN trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JFIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (24.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 260.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.