MODEL VERDICT
J.Jill, Inc. (JILL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $35.68 | +114.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $38.21 | +129.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 17 industry peers | $36.60 | +119.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 19 industry peers | $44.94 | +169.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $56.85 | +241.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 19 industry peers | $52.47 | +214.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 23 industry peers | $24.12 | +44.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 23 industry peers | $29.70 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 17 industry peers | $36.60 | +119.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 19 industry peers | $44.94 | +169.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.25 | +105.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $11 | $16 | $22 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $11 | $17 | $22 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $11 | $17 | $23 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $12 | $18 | $24 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.94 | 9.34 | 6.49 | 10.58 | 1.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.07 | 8.24 | 6.08 | 9.79 | 1.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.06 | 7.57 | 3.78 | 25.86 | 8.03 |
| P/FCF | 5.62 | 5.30 | 3.43 | 8.23 | 2.16 |
| P/FFO | 47.45 | 6.28 | 2.92 | 213.62 | 92.92 |
| P/AFFO | 8.09 | 7.18 | 4.60 | 13.38 | 3.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 2.62 | 0.93 | 9.98 | 4.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.68 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates JILL's fair value at $34.25 vs the current price of $16.66, implying +105.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.07 (P10) to $45.36 (P90), with a median of $36.88.
JILL's current P/E of 6.4x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (17 peers in the group). This represents a -54.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover JILL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.33 (range: $16.00 — $21.00), implying +10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JILL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.